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Volume 30 Number 2 2007 |
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Mathematical Model of Dengue Disease Transmission with Severe DHF Compartment
N. Nuraini, E. Soewono and K.A. Sidarto
Abstract.
An SIR model for dengue disease transmission is discussed here. It
is assumed that two viruses namely strain 1 and strain 2 cause the
disease and long lasting immunity from infection caused by one virus
may not be valid with respect to a secondary infection by the other
virus. Our interest here is to derive and analyse the model taking
into account the severe DHF compartment in the transmission model.
The aim would be to find a control measure to reduce the DHF
patients in the population, or to keep the number of patients at an
acceptable level. Analysis of this model reveals that there are four
equilibria, one of them is the disease-free, the other three
equilibria correspond to the presence of single serotype
respectively, and the coexistence of two serotypes. Stability
analysis of each equilibria and their relations with type
reproductive numbers are shown. We also discuss the ratio between
total number of severe DHF compartment with respect to the total
number of first infection compartment and the total number of
secondary infection compartment, respectively. This ratio is needed
for practical control measure in order to predict the "real"
intensity of the endemic phenomena since only data of severe DHF
compartment is available in the field.
2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 92D30
Full text: PDF |
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